Juan Soto’s new deal with the New York Mets doesn’t just change free agency this year, it changes it forever. But why did the Mets give him this contract?
On December 11, 2024, Juan Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million dollar contract with the New York Mets. It became the most expensive contract in baseball and sports history, passing Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year $700 million deal from the year before. How did we get to this point?
On May 20, 2018, Juan Soto made his major league debut with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals had built a contender, with names like Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg on the pitching end, and names like Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and eventually Soto on the batting end.
Soto’s rookie season was a remarkable one. Soto had 121 hits, 22 home runs, 70 RBIs, 79 walks, and finished with a .923 On-Base plus Slugging percentage. He finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting, only behind future MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. And despite his outstanding campaign, the Nationals did not make the playoffs.
The season after, his stats improved across the board, finishing 9th in MVP voting. The Nationals had won 93 games, and they had booked their ticket to the playoffs. In the playoffs, Soto hit 5 home runs and batted .277. When the Nationals won the World Series, it was clear that 20-year-old Juan Soto was going to be a superstar of the future.
Fast forward to 2022. The Nationals hadn’t made the playoffs since they won the World Series, Soto was getting better and better, and it was obvious he did not want to resign with the Nationals. He declined a 15-year, $440 million extension with the club, and from that moment going forward, the Soto Sweepstakes had begun. Several teams made offers, but the Padres were the team that brought him in. The main pieces they got in return were CJ Abrams and James Wood, 2 players who are now everyday pieces for the Nationals.
Soto’s time with the Padres was unremarkable on a team level, yet fantastic on an individual level. In the one full year he spent with them, he finished 6th in MVP voting and led the league in walks. However, the Padres organization was operating on a budget. It was certain that Soto would garner $40 million or more per year contracts and the Padres wanted to stay under the luxury tax. The Padres also had several holes to fill in their defensive and pitching lineups, so on December 7, 2023, they traded him to the Yankees for a group of role players that would help fill the holes.
The Yankees were a powerhouse with Aaron Judge, and they looked even better with Soto. Before the season, experts were already predicting that they would make it to the World Series with ease. Soto proceeded to have the greatest season of his career. He tallied 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, 129 walks, and had an On-Base plus Slugging percentage of .989. With his free agency looming, he performed in a way that would make the bidding war that was to come to a guarantee rather than a potential situation.
On October 31, 2024, the day Soto hit free agency, it was reported he was seeking $700 million, the same number Shohei Ohtani got the season before. Following that pattern, the media and fans expected some of the money to be deferred. Teams have been deferring money for years, but never to the level the Ohtani contract is doing it. He will be making $2 million a year until 2033, and from 2034-2043, once his contract ends, he will be making $68 million a year.
Teams are scared to give out lump sums of money for long contracts because it limits the money they can spend on other players. Although there is no salary cap in the MLB, there are many taxes for those that go above a certain payroll number. It would take an owner who is willing to cut the check to bring in Soto.
Enter Steve Cohen. In 2013, his hedge fund company Steven A. Cohen Capital Advisors pleaded guilty to insider trading and paid $1.8 billion in fines. Cohen was able to escape criminal indictment despite being the mastermind of the whole scheme. All this to say, before being the New York Mets owner, he had a horrible public image. Cohen had owned a stake in the Mets since 2012, but made a complete purchase of the team in 2020. Two things became immediately apparent: Steve Cohen was going to cut the check, and Steve Cohen wanted to win.
Cohen’s first big move as owner was to trade for MVP-caliber Shortstop Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians. Next, later in the 2021 season, he traded for Cubs middle infielder Javier Báez. In the 2021 offseason, he signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Max Scherzer. The following offseason he signed J.D. Martinez. He was willing to spend money and trade young players to compete for the championship every year.
Financially, it made complete sense to sign with the Mets, but did it make sense when it came to being competitive? The Dodgers and Yankees were the 2 World Series teams this year, why not stay with the Yankees or go to the Dodgers? The answer is simple. The Mets have a brighter future. They have the 13th-ranked farm system. Most of the batting lineup is in their prime, and the pitching rotation has younger arms that can provide run prevention in the next few years. Soto signed his record-breaking deal, and it immediately sent shockwaves across the league, most importantly north of the border.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a fantastic hitter, there is no arguing that. He finished 6th in AL MVP voting, hitting 30 home runs and batting .323 last season. He is in his last year of arbitration this year, so the Blue Jays offered him a $340 million contract extension, which he has reportedly declined. Reportedly, his agent and himself are seeking upwards of $500 million.
The impacts of the Juan Soto signing are already showing themselves. Good offensive players are going to get paid outrageous amounts of money going forward, which is going to encourage them not to sign contract extensions and to test free agency.
